Is the Asian cold level by the lethality about 0.5% of the new model?

In the lethality of a new influenza that was going around now, the fashions started higher than the seasonality influenzas in 1957 and researcher Hiroshi's Nishiura (It was and was wide)(theoretical epidemiology) et al. team as big as Netherlands Utrecht brought research results assumed to be about 0.5% of about "Asian flu" in which about two million people had died in the world together by the 17th. The data of becoming popular initial in the United States and Canada was analyzed. It is shortly published in the U.S. science magazine pros- one.

The research team calculates the lethality based on the data of the United States until June 10 of Canada until May 1. Then, the result of 0・21-3・76%(1.2% on the average) in the United States and 0・05-0・41%(0.2% on the average) in Canada came out.

When having discussed it, features of data depended actually in the United States, there were a possibility to be presumed low a little high in Canada, and were thought to be estimate value of Mexico estimated to be 0.5% and an almost equivalent by the detail. The new model is assumed whether the lethality of seasonality is 0.1% to deflect, and is Iu when presumed the Asian cold level of 0.5% higher than seasonality. By the way, it will become popular until 19 years the next day since 1918, and the lethality of "Spanish flu" called worst-ever is about 2%.

Mr./Ms. Nishiura｢(since autumn)It is necessary to prepare in the situation in which a considerable sickbed is occupied by the flu victim in the medical institution. It is necessary to prepare it determining that the serious case who needs cordial management such as pregnant women and the asthma patient goes out a lot, and the deceased person of the considerable amount goes out. ｣It speaks. 

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