Researcher estimate of about new influenza lethality 0.5% "Asian cold"

New influenza: About lethality 0.5% "Asian cold"--Researcher estimate

New influenza "Asian cold" about 0.5% of the level at that time at the time of became popular higher than the seasonality influenza in Asia in 1957 and researcher Hiroshi Nishiura (theoretical epidemiology) as big as Netherlands Utrecht et al. estimated the lethality of a new influenza of which the dead went out domestically. It is published near the U.S. science magazine pros- one.

The research team is a calculation lingua from the number of lock-in infected persons and the death toll affirmed to the first stage of the new influenza fashion of the United States and Canada like 1.2% as for the lethality of the United States, and 0.18% as for Canada. However, the possibility to be calculated low because there were a lot of patients of the attack time unclear processed Canada from an actual lethality to improving to the United States in high, and statistics because the dead had gone out at first of the fashion, and an actual lethality was estimated to be about 0.5%.

On the other hand, the lethality of the seasonality influenza is less than 0.1%. The lethality of an Asian cold that about two million people died is assumed to be about 0.5%, and the lethality of this new influenza is a grider with the Asian cold level and the conclusion.

The research team : about the lethality of Japan. ｢Expectation that falls below 0.5%. Because proper treatment of the person who has the old ailment, and the anti‐influenza agent 'Full Tami' are administered by a lot of cases, it is likely to become low. ｣It analyzes it. 

Moreover, researcher Nishiura :. ｢There is a possibility that the number of infected persons increases without waiting for winter in Japan. It is necessary to prepare it determining that toxicities are higher than seasonality, the person who has the pregnant woman and the old ailment makes to the severely ill a lot, and the dead of the considerable amount go out. ｣It calls. 

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